southeast region climate in spring

The Southern Forest Futures Project: Technical Report. All storyboards are private and secure to the portal using enterprise-class file security hosted by Microsoft Azure. B. Bolten, M. Chaloupka, V. S. Saba, C. Bellini, M. A. G. Marcovaldi, A. J. Ebi, K. L., and J. Nealon, 2016: Dengue in a changing climate. The remainder of the costs include $5 billion for infrastructure repairs and $1.5$2.0 billion for damage to the agricultural sector, also mainly in Florida. [1] Temperatures are projected to increase by 4F to 8F by the end of the century. Georgia Water Resources Institute (GWRI) Technical Report sponsored by NOAA, USGS, and Georgia EPD, Georgakakos, K. P., N. E. Graham, F. - Y. Cheng, C. Spencer, E. Shamir, A. P. Georgakakos, H. Yao, and M. Kistenmacher, Value of adaptive water resources management in northern California under climatic variability and change: Dynamic hydroclimatology, Fire in the South: A Report by the Southern Group of State Foresters. United Nations Environment Programme, Regional Office for Latin America and the Caribbean, 92 pp. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 5).1 For the Caribbean, it is equally difficult to project the magnitude of precipitation changes, although the majority of models show future decreases in precipitation are likely, with a few areas showing increases. USDA, Forest Service, Washington Office, Washington, DC, 218 pp. Southeast Regional Climate Hub Regional limate Summary The southeastern United States has a humid, subtropical climate, which appeals to a large number of people and busi- . B. The Charlotte Observer,. URL February 20. Seminole Tribe of Florida. 7: Ecosystems).136,137. Projected increase in temperature will increase evaporation, and in areas (the western part of the region83) where precipitation is projected to decrease in response to climate change, the net amount of water supply for human and environmental uses may decrease significantly. URL Williams, K., Z. S. Pinzon, R. P. Stumpf, and E. A. Raabe, 1999: Sea-level rise and coastal forests on the Gulf of Mexico. The key message and supporting text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Southeast Technical Input Report.3 Technical inputs (57) on a wide range of topics were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. ELECTRONIC VERSION. Living Marine Resources: National Marine Fisheries Service Concerns, Activities and Needs. Existing flood map boundaries do not account for future flood risk due to the increasing frequency of more intense precipitation events, as well as new development that would reduce the floodplain's ability to manage storm water. Ingram, Dow, K., Carter, L., and Anderson, J., Eds., Island Press, 210-236. Gamble, Ed., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 39-87. This feature has been dubbed the warming hole and has been the subject of considerable research, although a conclusive cause has not been identified. | Detail , Harrington, J., 2013: Florida tourism sets record in 2012. NOAAs National Weather Service (NWS) issues coastal flood advisories and warnings when water levels at tide gauges are expected to exceed flood thresholds. Krakauer, N. Y., 2012: Estimating climate trends: Application to United States plant hardiness zones. This migration also happens in response to extreme events such as Hurricane Katrina, when more than 200,000 migrants were temporarily housed in Houston and 42% indicated they would try to remain there (Ch. US Reports 99593, 00-178, and 00-179. Island Press, 341 pp. Another uncertainty is how combinations of stresses, for example lack of water in addition to extreme heat, will affect outcomes. Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, State of Louisiana, Baton Rouge, LA. Improved analyses of tide gauges, coastal elevations, and circulation changes in offshore waters have also provided new information on accelerating rates of rise (Ch. Diem, J. E., C. E. Stauber, and R. Rothenberg, 2017: Heat in the southeastern United States: Characteristics, trends, and potential health impact. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, 312 pp. The precise impacts on cities are difficult to project. Hauer, M. E., 2017: Migration induced by sea-level rise could reshape the US population landscape. | Detail , ,, 2012: Stories of Change: Coastal Louisiana Tribal Communities Experiences of a Transforming Environment (Grand Bayou, Grand Caillou/Dulac, Isle de Jean Charles, Pointe-au-Chien). 10: Ag & Rural, KM 3). The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation, Summary and Discussion Papers, Federal Research Partnership Workshop, October 1-2, 2002, Climate Change in the Caribbean and the Challenge of Adaptation, Wiedner, C., J. Rcker, R. Brggemann, and B. Nixdorf, Climate change affects timing and size of populations of an invasive cyanobacterium in temperate regions. Coral elevation and volume in the Florida Keys have been declining in recent decades,245 and present-day temperatures in the region are already close to bleaching thresholds; hence, it is likely that many of the remaining coral reefs in the Southeast region will be lost in the coming decades.246,247 In addition to warming temperatures, accelerated ocean acidification is also expected to contribute to coral reef mortality and decline.248,249 When coral reefs are lost, coastal communities lose the many benefits provided by these valuable ecosystems, including lost tourism opportunities, a decline in fisheries, and a decrease in wave protection.246,247. | Detail , ,, 2011: Louisiana Highway 1/Port Fourchon Study. URL After clicking "Copy Activity", update the instructions on the Edit Tab of the assignment.). In contrast, a late season freeze occurred on April 22nd -23rd. Journal of Forestry, 99, 9-17. American Planning Association, 224 pp. Higher temperatures contribute to the formation of harmful air pollutants and allergens.6 Higher temperatures are also projected to reduce livestock and crop productivity.7,8 Climate change is expected to increase harmful blooms of algae and several disease-causing agents in inland and coastal waters.9,10,11,12,13 The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic and the amount of rain falling in very heavy precipitation events have increased over recent decades, and further increases are projected. The geographic distribution of these impacts and vulnerabilities is uneven, since the region encompasses a wide range of environments, from the Appalachian Mountains to the coastal plains. 80 pp., Environmental Health Perspectives and the National Institute of Environmental Health Services, Research Triangle Park, NC. Hughes, T. P., A. H. Baird, D. R. Bellwood, M. Card, S. R. Connolly, C. Folke, R. Grosberg, O. Hoegh-Guldberg, J. 3: Water, KM 2; Ch. Stocks, and B. M. Wotton, 2001: Climate change and forest disturbances: Climate change can affect forests by altering the frequency, intensity, duration, and timing of fire, drought, introduced species, insect and pathogen outbreaks, hurricanes, windstorms, ice storms, or landslides. Rising, M. Delgado, S. Mohan, D. J. Rasmussen, R. Muir-Wood, P. Wilson, M. Oppenheimer, K. Larsen, and T. Houser, 2017: Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States. Woodroffe, C. D., and J. Grindrod, 1991: Mangrove biogeography: The role of quaternary environmental and sea-level change. Ramps emerge in springtime and provide important nutrients after a long winter with a dearth of fresh vegetables. A central component of the process was the Southeast Regional Climate Assessment Workshop that was held on September 26-27, 2011, in Atlanta, with approximately 75 attendees. URL High tide coastal flooding has started to inundate these low-lying roads, restricting access during certain times of the day and causing public safety concerns. The key message and supporting text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Southeast Technical Input Report.3 A total of 57 technical inputs on a wide range of southeast-relevant topics (including sea level rise) were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input. See Guide to this Report for more on Barbier, E. B., S. D. Hacker, C. Kennedy, E. W. Koch, A. C. Stier, and B. R. Silliman, 2011: The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. The climate affects so much in the region, such as growing season, tourism, culture, and more. They have mostly mild winters and hot, humid summers where temperatures can exceed 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Adaptation options that are being assessed in this region include the redesign and improvement of storm drainage canals, flood control structures, and stormwater pumps. Isle de Jean Charles Tribe, 2017: Bienvenue, Aiokpanchi, Welcome to Isle de Jean Charles [web site]. | Detail , Hewes, W., and K. Pitts, 2009: Natural Security: How Sustainable Water Strategies Are Preparing Communities for a Changing Climate. | Detail , Kovats, R. S., and S. Hajat, 2008: Heat stress and public health: A critical review. | Detail , Martinez-Urtaza, J., J. C. Bowers, J. Trinanes, and A. DePaola, 2010: Climate anomalies and the increasing risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus illnesses. B. Santos, L. F. W. Bortolon, A. The prolonged inundation and lack of oxygen that results from extreme rainfall can also result in mortality, such as the dieback of critical foundation plant species, and other large impacts to natural systems.233 In combination, future increases in the frequency and severity of both extreme drought and extreme rainfall are expected to transform many ecosystems in the Southeast region. When these cities experience high tide coastal flooding due to perigean tides, the tidewater enters the storm water system, which prevents rainwater from entering storm drains and causes increased impacts from flooding. Alexandrov, V. A., and G. Hoogenboom, 2000: Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of agricultural crops under climate change in the Southeastern USA. Moberg, F., and C. Folke, 1999: Ecological goods and services of coral reef ecosystems. In the Southeast, winter temperature extremes, fire regimes, sea level fluctuations, hurricanes, extreme rainfall, and extreme drought all play critical roles and greatly influence the distribution, structure, and function of species and ecosystems. However, these models do not account for adaptations that may reduce estimated losses.35,64 By the end of the century, mean annual electricity costs are estimated at $3.3 billion each year under RCP8.5 (model range: $2.4 to $4.2 billion; in 2015 dollars, undiscounted) and mean $1.2 billion each year under RCP4.5 (model range $0.9 to $1.9 billion; in 2015 dollars, undiscounted).35, Rural communities tend to be vulnerable due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, and poverty incidence.8,9,10,250,283,284,305 Reducing the stress created by such factors can improve resilience.9,284 The availability and accessibility of planning and health services to support coping with climate-related stresses are limited in the rural Southeast.288,289. Rose, E. Siemann, R. G. Welzel, and R. J. Zimmerman, Confronting Climate Change in the Gulf Coast Region: Prospects for Sustaining Our Ecological Heritage, Climate Change in the Caribbean and the Challenge of Adaptation, Verbout, S. M., H. E. Brooks, L. M. Leslie, and D. M. Schultz, Evolution of the US tornado database: 1954-2003, Villareal, T. A., C. Moore, P. Stribling, F. Van Dolah, G. Luber, and M. A. Wenck, Ciguatera fish poisoningTexas 1998, and South Carolina 2004, Journal of the American Medical Association, Vose, J. M., D. L. Peterson, and T. Patel-Weynand, Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector. Assessing Puerto Ricos Social-Ecological Vulnerabilities in a Changing Climate. | Detail , Mackun, P., S. Wilson, T. R. Fischetti, and J. Goworowska, 2010: Population Distribution and Change: 2000 to 2010. EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 214 pp. Morss, R. E., O. V. Wilhelmi, G. A. Meehl, and L. Dilling, 2011: Improving societal outcomes of extreme weather in a changing climate: An integrated perspective. Rising temperatures and the substantial increase in duration of high temperatures (for either the low [B1] or high [A2] emissions scenarios) above critical thresholds will have significant impacts on the population, agricultural industries, and ecosystems in the region. Conservation Biology, 22, 534-543, doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, 5 pp. Global sea level rose about eight inches in the last century and is projected to rise another 1 to 4 feet in this century. This website is the digital version of the 2014 National Climate Assessment, produced in collaboration with the U.S. According to the article, [b]ecause losses are largest in regions that are already poorer on average, climate change tends to increase preexisting inequality in the United States.11 Understanding the demographic and socioeconomic composition of racial and ethnic groups in the region is important, because these characteristics are associated with health risk factors, disease prevalence, and access to care, which in turn may influence the degree of impact from climate-related threats. Melvin, M. A., 2015: 2015 National Prescribed Fire Use Survey Report. As sea levels have risen locally in the last one hundred years, the storm water systems in these areas are no longer able to perform as designed. An increasing number of high heat and dry days as the climate warms poses a risk to efficient power generation, particularly under conditions where the mode of primary generation moves towards natural gas and water-intensive nuclear power.256, Agriculture, livestock rearing, and forestry activities are widespread and varied through the Southeast region.7 Climate change is expected to have an overall negative impact on agricultural productivity in the United States,35 although some crops could also become newly viable alternatives (Key Message 3, Figure 19.15). FTA Report No. Christensen, N. L., 1981: Fire regimes in southeastern ecosystems. Environmental Health, 7, 1-12, doi:10.1186/1476-069X-7-S2-S4. | Detail , Couvillion, B. R., J. Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent results, well documented and accepted methods, etc. The number of days with heavy precipitation has increased at most stations, particularly since the 1980s. Next month's Southeast Monthly Climate Webinar is on Tuesday, April 13 at 10 am ET, with a special presentation on the Spring Flood Outlook. Lightning is a frequent initiator of wildfires,71 and the Southeast currently has the greatest frequency of lightning strikes of any region of the country.72 Increasing temperatures and changing atmospheric patterns may affect the number of lightning strikes in the Southeast, which could influence air quality, direct injury, and wildfires.Drought often correlates with large wildfire events, as seen with the Okeefenokee (2007) and Florida fires (1998). Bernatchez, A., and L. Lapointe, 2012: Cooler temperatures favour growth of wild leek (Allium tricoccum), a deciduous forest spring ephemeral. Drought and extreme heat can result in tree mortality and transform the regions forested ecosystems (Ch. Nature Climate Change, 2, 884-888, doi:10.1038/nclimate1597. assessments of likelihood and confidence. Oecologia, 152, 473-484, doi:10.1007/s00442-007-0683-5. 5: Potential consequences of climate variability and change for the Southeastern United States. NOAA, Georgia Sea Grant, Athens, GA, 82 pp. Climate change is likely to modify the seasonality, distribution, and prevalence of vector-borne diseases in the Southeast.29 Vector-borne diseases pose a greater risk in cities than in rural areas because of higher population densities and other human factors (for example, pools of standing water in man-made structures, such as tires or buckets, are breeding grounds for some species of mosquitoes). URL Deal, N., 2017: Deal declares state of emergency ahead of Hurricane Irma. Storm surge inundations at Cudjoe and the surrounding Keys were between 5 and 8 feet.100 Prior to landfall in Florida, Irma caused significant damage in the U.S. Virgin Islands and parts of Puerto Rico as a Category 5 hurricane with 185 mph wind speeds (see Ch. Vose, R. S., D. R. Easterling, K. E. Kunkel, A. N. LeGrande, and M. F. Wehner, 2017: Temperature Changes in the United States. Recent changes in seasonal temperatures that are critical for plant development will continue to impact regionally important crops. Although the appearance of tropical recreational fish, like snook for example, may be favorable for some anglers, the movement of tropical marine species is expected to greatly modify existing food webs and ecosystems (Ch. | Detail , Titus, J., 2002: Does sea level rise matter to transportation along the Atlantic coast? Holding, C. V. Kappel, M. I. O'Connor, J. M. Pandolfi, C. Parmesan, F. Schwing, S. A. Thompson, and A. J. Richardson, 2013: Global imprint of climate change on marine life. 2: Our Changing Climate, Key Message 10). Prepared for the 2013 National Climate Assessment and a landmark study in terms of its breadth and depth of coverage, Climate of the Southeast United States is the result of a collaboration among three Regional Integrated Sciences and . Four Native communities in Southeast Louisiana (Grand Bayou Village, Grand Caillou/Dulac, Isle de Jean Charles, and Pointe-au-Chien) have already experienced significant land loss. Warming ocean temperatures due to climate change are expected to have a large effect on marine and coastal ecosystems.234,235,236 Many species are sensitive to small changes in ocean temperature; hence, the distribution and abundance of marine organisms are expected to be greatly altered by increasing ocean temperatures. December was dry and warm, January was cooler with more precipitation, and February leaned to drier and warmer conditions. Food Research International, 43, 1745-1765, doi:10.1016/j.foodres.2010.07.003. Jurjonas, M., and E. Seekamp, 2018: Rural coastal community resilience: Assessing a framework in eastern North Carolina. Southwest Region Climate will sometimes glitch and take you a long time to try different solutions. before making use of copyrighted material. 8: Coastal, KM 1). Increasing temperatures in the Southeast cause more stresses on crop and livestock agricultural systems. 20 pp., Florida Climate Institute, Gainesville, FL. | Detail , Tester, P. A., R. L. Feldman, A. W. Nau, S. R. Kibler, and W. R. Litaker, 2010: Ciguatera fish poisoning and sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and the West Indies. Park, J. Barnes, and T. Dessalegne, 2011: Climate change and its implications for water resources management in south Florida. There is high confidence that climate change (e.g., rising temperatures, changing fire regimes, rising sea levels, and more extreme rainfall and drought) will very likely affect agricultural and forest products industries, potentially resulting in economic impacts. ), disagreement or lack of opinions among experts. Federal Highway Administration's (FHWA), Climate Resilience Pilot Program, Washington, DC, 4 pp. Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments (CISA), Columbia, SC, 4 pp. Climate model simulations of future conditions project increases in both temperature and extreme precipitation. Springer, Berlin,. Marine transportation can be impacted as well. Stewart (eds.)]. ), competing schools of thought, Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc. Rural counties in the region generally have a diversified economy with a relatively low percentage being heavily dependent on one sector. FacebookTweet Wdowinski, S., R. Bray, B. P. Kirtman, and Z. Wu, 2016: Increasing flooding hazard in coastal communities due to rising sea level: Case study of Miami Beach, Florida. 10: Ag & Rural, KM 1).7 In particular, precipitation trends for the Southeast region show an inclination towards slightly drier summers, which could reduce productivity, and wetter fall seasons, which can make it difficult to harvest the full crop. | Detail , Devens, T., 2012: Phone Interview. Burkett, M., R. R. M. Verchick, and D. Flores, 2017: Reaching higher ground: Avenues to secure and manage new land for communities displaced by climate change. 10: Ag & Rural, KM 4).8,9,10 Reducing stress associated with these factors can increase household and community resilience.9,284. Based on the subsequent authors meeting and input from NCA staff, the chapter outline and Key Messages were updated to reflect a risk-based framing in the context of a new set of Key Messages. Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, 5, 121-139. | Detail , Osgood, K. E., 2008: Climate Impacts on U.S. Journal of Phycology, 46, 220-235, doi:10.1111/j.1529-8817.2010.00815.x. Kunkel, K.L.M. Living Marine Resources: National Marine Fisheries Service Concerns, Activities and Needs. 2: Agriculture. Physical Geography, 21, 494-521, doi:10.1080/02723646.2000.10642723. Temperatures increased again from 1970 to the present by an average of 2F, with higher average temperatures during summer months. B. C. Jackson, 2017: Ghost reefs: Nautical charts document large spatial scale of coral reef loss over 240 years. NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), Silver Spring, MD, various pp. Many indicators of vulnerability are dynamic, so that adaptation and other changes can affect the patterns of vulnerability to heat and other climate stressors over time. However, without additional studies, the resilience and the adaptive capacity of the socioeconomic and environmental systems are not known. South Florida Regional Climate Change Compact (SFRCCC), Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, and Palm Beach Counties, FL. Synthesis Report. 28: Adaptation, Table 28.6).3,67. | Detail , Sheridan, S. C., A. J. Kalkstein, and L. S. Kalkstein, 2009: Trends in heat-related mortality in the United States, 1975-2004. Luedeling, E., 2012: Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: A review. Authors with specific expertise in each of these areas were sought, and a draft outline built around these issues was developed. Acadiana Planning Commission, 2018: APC Board allocates $25 million in HMGP funding to regional flood mitigation projects. This area is influenced by the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico, and is thus easily classified as humid. Increasing precipitation and extreme weather events will likely impact roads, freight rail, and passenger rail, which will likely have cascading effects across the region. Climate by:Ali, Jodi, and,Dylan We are going to tell you about the climate on the Coastal Plain. Passing clouds. Drought and extreme heat can result in tree mortality and transform southeastern forested ecosystems.217,218,219,220,221,222,223 Drought can also affect aquatic and wetland ecosystems.224,225,226,227,228,229,232 Extreme rainfall events are also expected to become more frequent and severe in the future. Earth Economics, Tacoma, WA, 98 pp. For this activity, students will create a spider map that depicts the climate of the Southeast. Management of river flow has deprived the coastal wetlands of the freshwater and sediment that they need to replenish and persist. Neumann, J. E., J. URL Winder GA: Southern Group of State Foresters. All storyboards are public and can be viewed and copied by anyone. Grace, and K. Rogers, 2017: Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Increasing temperatures and the associated increase in frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events will affect public health, natural and built environments, energy, agriculture, and forestry. | Detail , Ashley, W. S., and C. W. Gilson, 2009: A reassessment of U.S. lightning mortality. | Detail , Burkett, V., R. Ritschard, S. McNulty, J. J. OBrien, R. Abt, J. Jones, U. Hatch, B. Murray, S. Jagtap, and J. Flooding events are highly variable in both space and time. De Jess Crespo, R., P. Mndez Lzaro, and S. H. 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